The latest word
from the self-driving car world is favorable.
Despite the recent fatal crash involving a Tesla Model S sedan during
“autopilot” mode tests, the U.S. Secretary of Transportation, Anthony Foxx, just
proclaimed such vehicles possess great potential to improve safety and advised the
federal government will commence “premarket approval steps” for this
technology. Inasmuch as the Transportation
Department is extensively involved with Google, BMW, General Motors and other
companies in developing driverless autos, is it possible these devices might
become part of America’s future?
Let me bring you up
to date on the development and progress of what’s known as the autonomous car. Thus far four states enacted laws permitting operation
and testing of such vehicles on public roads.
Nevada’s went into effect in 2012, with the first license issued to a
Toyota Prius. Florida became second,
California third, and finally Michigan in December 2013. In May 2014, Google presented their concept
for a fully functioning prototype, with neither steering wheels nor pedals, and
plans to offer these cars to the public in 2020. A spokesmen announced in June 2015 their
testing teams drove over one million miles, essentially driverless, with no
serious hazardous events.
Despite the rapid
development of the technology, there’s opposition from many quarters on the
very concept—and understandably so. Fundamental
to the objections is the question as to who controls the code. The variant goes like this: Your self-driving
car realizes it can divert itself in one of two ways. It may kill you while saving a busload of
children, or save you as it kills all the kids.
Which should it be programmed to do?
More importantly, who will decide?
Will it be the likely occupant of the car, or a committee established by
the U.S. Department of Transportation? And
whatever the problems, they’ll be worsened by designing the vehicle’s system to
treat passengers as hostile interlopers.
There are other things
that can go wrong. All computers have
flaws. Even software used for years and
whose source code is considered foolproof may have subtle bugs. Even when functioning perfectly, the program
may malfunction in a variety of ways, such as identifying harmless objects such
as trash and light debris, causing the vehicle to veer unnecessarily. But perhaps most vexing of all will be
incessant government demands to be given the right to control vehicles. It’s not unlikely police departments will
petition for authority to send signals to your car to force it to pull
over. You may then expect the same from
drug enforcement agencies. And finally,
how long will it be before thieves and other outlaws successfully impersonate
law enforcement agencies?
I admit to having
mixed emotions over the concept of a moving vehicle with no driver behind the
wheel. The potential benefits are
obvious. Persons whose physical
limitations prevent them from driving will suddenly enjoy mobility. A lone commuter in a car need no longer
devote full attention to traffic or staring at the centerline of the
highway. And if safety of the system can
be insured, the elimination of injury and death caused by careless drivers will
become a thing of the past.
It seems axiomatic
that every single benefit technology bestows upon us will come with some sort
of offsetting disadvantage. I recall an
earlier time when, as a Los Angeles teenager, I made my livelihood setting pins
in a bowling alley. It’s true the
introduction of the Brunswick automatic pin-setting machines eased problems for
my boss, the bowling alley owner. There was, of course, a downside; I lost my
job. And this brings back even more
memories . . . and questions to go with them. How would the self-driving car
have affected me many years ago when I drove a Yellow Cab? It takes no imagination to figure the answer.
While we’re on the
subject of the professional driver, there are a few facts you might take into
consideration. There are 3.5 million truck
drivers in the U.S., with average annual salaries of $40,000. Add yet another 5.2 million employed in
support of the industry, those who don’t drive trucks. When you then consider the many businesses
built around the trucking industry, such as motels and restaurants, you realize
how dependent our economy is on the persons who operate trucks. What may we expect if self-driving trucks put
these millions of persons out of work?
This is particularly crucial, for truck driving is one of the few
remaining trades to provide middle class incomes to persons with no more than a
high school education. Never forget
middle income manufacturing jobs of the once gainfully employed masses of
Americans no longer exist. Those not
automated away by the computer or robotic machines were mostly shipped overseas
to countries whose employees subsist on three dollars per day salaries. Yet, despite the economic misery facing us as
a nation, it appears we’re about to do it to ourselves again. My question: Who shall we blame?
I’ll conclude this
critique on the economy with a testimonial.
Several days ago I purchased a pair of Skechers leather sandals from a local
discount shoe outlet, at the particularly attractive price of $39.95. As you’d expect, Made in China. If we all resolve
to purchase only American made sandals, at a cost probably topping $150, our
domestic industry will prosper. I’ll
repeat my concluding question—now rhetorical—from the prior paragraph, relative
to our coming economic misery: Who shall we blame? Perhaps we should all look in the mirror. To
quote Walt Kelly’s character, Pogo Possum, nearly a half-century ago: “We have
met the enemy and he is us.”
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If you enjoy this
weekly Straight Talk by Al Jacobs, you’re invited to check out my monthly
Financial Newsletter, as well as my new book, The Road to Prosperity
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