Sunday, August 7, 2016

THINGS TO COME


My 43-year-old niece, Roberta, just lost her job of eight years.  As a high school graduate with a year of community college to her credit, she worked as the sole employee in a 400-square-foot property management office as receptionist, file clerk and general office do-it-all.  Though she performed well for her boss, he told her the job no longer existed.  The reason: He set up an office in his home, went electronic on his files and reports, and relegated the telephone to automation.  In doing so, human endeavor is replaced by a set of machines . . . at a monetary savings, of course.


There’s more to this little happening than the loss of a single job by one salaried employee.  What we just witnessed is transpiring across the nation at all income levels.  If you pay attention to the statistics, you know the official unemployment rate for July 2016 is 4.9%.  And if that number is accurate, my niece will be quickly reemployed.  However, the U.S. Labor Department rigged the system so by its selected method, categorized as U-3, only “persons without jobs who have actively looked for work within the past four weeks” are counted as unemployed.  If every employable individual without meaningful employment is counted, the rate would more likely run closer to 20%.  The odds are, Roberta will probably be out of work for a long time.


The replacement of human workers by machines is nothing new.  If we flash back two hundred years to England, we see an Industrial Revolution in progress, with hand production replaced by machine tools and the rise of factories.  And as you’d expect, the transformation caused upheaval.  With textiles as one of the dominant industries, workers in that trade, who found their jobs threatened, did not take it kindly.  One such man was Ned Ludd, of Leicestershire, who in 1799 smashed two stocking frames in a fit of rage, while proclaiming: “Progress may have been a good idea once, but it has outgrown its usefulness.”  With that, the anti-modernization Luddite movement developed where, over the next decade, organized mobs actively participated in the destruction of machinery of all sorts.  Not until 1813, when the British government harshly suppressed the Luddites, executing some of its participants, did it finally end.


Somewhat more recently, and closer to home, we see the effects of technological advances coupled with the maturing international economy.  Over the past several decades, manufacturing in the U.S.—for over a century the mainstay of the nation’s economy—became less and less viable.  Our problems don’t seem correctable.  With the market for our products now worldwide, we must be able to match our competitors in both price and quality.  But how can our products compete when our employees receive a $15 per hour wage, while a competing firm in China pays only $1.26 per hour—or in Bangladesh, 24¢ per hour?  It’s no surprise that virtually every electronic product on the shelves of my local Kohl’s department store bears the label “Made in China.”  Does it lead you, as it does me, to ask the rhetorical question: Where are the U.S. workers who did not have a hand in manufacturing any of these items?


While we’re lamenting the loss of jobs to low-paid foreign workers, let’s take a closer look at some of the jobs being created here in America.  Over the past several years I’ve marveled at the number of massive facilities I’ve observed springing up in the nearby Inland Empire (these are the counties of San Bernardino and Riverside in Southern California which house a mostly lower income blue collar population).  Many of these structures are major corporate warehouses, some containing hundreds of thousands of square feet, and obviously built to take advantage of low land costs.  I’ve presumed the sheer size of these buildings, with the staffs they must hire, create employment opportunities for many local residents and improve the area’s economy   I now admit, having never actually inspected any of these operations, my presumptions were badly off base.  I’ve since learned few persons are needed to operate these warehouses.  Almost everything going on inside their walls is performed by machines, with only a handful of technicians required to handle the controls.  So once again, man takes a back seat to the machine.


If you’ve tuned into the ongoing presidential campaign, you see the economy is of vital concern for both major candidates.  Understandably, large numbers of tax-paying citizens without secure employment can be a potent source of votes.  This no doubt explains why the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, began his campaign by announcing that, if elected, he will deport millions of undocumented aliens and build a wall to keep out any more from entering.  It doesn’t matter whether such a project is even possible; it certainly influenced many votes.  In addition, he’s vowed taxes will be cut so citizens will keep more of their own money.  These messages registered well with the Republican electorate, enough so he beat out 16 competing candidates.


This gets us to the question which deserves to be asked and answered: How will America’s workers fare in the coming years?  Will our government conduct its affairs to encourage the traditional virtues of hard work, systematic savings and independence from government controls?  Perhaps so . . . and perhaps not.


I’ll not conclude this with a prediction of the election outcome or the economic future of millions of our fellow citizens—mainly because my predictions are often wrong.  Instead, I’ll simply provide a 2012 quotation from a past Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, that may give a hint as to how our nation is evolving.  With this, you may decide whether the future appears bright.


“There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the [Democrats] no matter what . . . who are dependent upon government . . . who believe they are victims . . . that government has a responsibility to care for them . . .that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it . . . that's an entitlement . . . and they will vote for [Democrats] no matter what.  These are people who pay no income tax . . . so our message doesn't connect. “


                                       

If you enjoy this weekly Straight Talk by Al Jacobs, you’re invited to check out my monthly Financial Newsletter, as well as my new book, The Road to Prosperity


                                       

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